US July ISM manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 52.0

• Prior was 53.0
• Prices paid 60.0 vs 75.0 expected (prior 78.5) -- fourth largest decline on record
• Production 53.5 vs 54.9 prior
• Employment 49.9 vs 47.3 prior
• New orders 48.0 vs 49.2

It's all about the price paid number. I'm a bit confused on why the consensus was so high. The prices component measures the delta so a decline shows a slower pace of price increases, which makes sense to me given what's happened in commodities. In any case, this report is what the Fed would have hoped to see.

“The slowing in price increases is being driven by (1) volatility in the energy markets, (2) softening in the copper, steel, aluminum and corrugate markets and (3) a significant decrease in chemical demand. Notably, 21.5% of respondents reported paying lower prices in July, compared to 8.3 percent in June,” the report said.

On the downside, new orders should be a bit of a concern. There's a notable comment below about companies drawing down inventories on recession fears. That kind of thing can become self-fulfilling.

Comments in the report:

• “Material extended lead times still affecting business, and the challenging labor market is a huge factor too. Backlog is healthy; we just cannot deliver to customers due to material issues.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Inflation is slowing down business. Overstock of raw materials due to prior supply chain issues and slowing orders.” [Chemical Products]
• “Chip shortages remain; however, the COVID-19 lockdowns in China are presenting even worse supply issues.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “Growing inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term is pushing a stronger narrative around pending recession concerns. Many customers appear to be pulling back on orders in an effort to reduce inventories.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “New order entry Entry In financial trading, an entry is simply the point at which a trader enters the market by either buying or selling a certain asset. Entries have two attributes, i.e. the price at which the trader entered, and the time at which the trader entered.There are a number of different types of entry in trading. The most common one is the Market Order. A market order is a manual order, which allows the trader to enter the market virtually immediately upon demand, at the current market price. A trader typ In financial trading, an entry is simply the point at which a trader enters the market by either buying or selling a certain asset. Entries have two attributes, i.e. the price at which the trader entered, and the time at which the trader entered.There are a number of different types of entry in trading. The most common one is the Market Order. A market order is a manual order, which allows the trader to enter the market virtually immediately upon demand, at the current market price. A trader typ Read this Term has slowed down slightly; however, logistical issues have yet to improve. Long lead times for materials and labor shortages are still a major problem.” [Machinery]
• “Our markets are still holding up; however, I believe a slowdown is coming. We are cautious about going out too far with orders. Also, I believe the general market is in the beginnings of a recession.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
• “All markets are extremely busy but face headwinds that will eventually take a toll. Lead times and costs make large projects very challenging to budget, plan and execute. Routine work is also very difficult.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
• “Current order books are full, but there have been signs of a slowdown beginning in the fourth quarter.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
• “Slight improvement projected for our business for the next quarter.” [Primary Metals]
• “Continuing delivery and staffing issues have eaten away the bottom line.” [Textile Mills]