US July non-farm payrolls +528K vs +250K expected

• Prior was +390K (revised to +384K)

• Estimates ranged from +75K to +325K

• Two month net revision K

• Unemployment rate 3.5% vs 3.6% expected

• Prior unemployment rate 3.6%

• Participation rate 62.1% vs 62.2% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)

• U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.7% prior

• Average hourly earnings +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected

• Average hourly earnings +5.2% y/y vs +4.9% expected (prior 5.1%)

• Average weekly hours 34.6 vs 34.5 expected

• Change in private payrolls +471K vs +230K expected

• Change in manufacturing payrolls +30K vs +17K expected

The odds of a 75 bps bike have jumped to 61% from 40% on the release.

Good news is certainly bad news here and bonds have slumped along with stock futures Futures Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as Read this Term. However for the US dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term, good news is good news and USD/JPY has spiked to 134.31 from 133.22.

This will be an enormous challenge for the recent rebound in the risk trade.

One caveat in all this is the household survey, which showed just 179K jobs and 239K people leaving the labor force. It has been much weaker than the establishment survey lately. In the past four months, the establishment survey has shown 1.8m more jobs than the household survey.