- Prior was +390K (revised to +384K)
- Estimates ranged from +90K to +400K
- Two month net revision K
- Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.6% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.6%
- Participation rate 62.2% vs 62.3% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
- U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 7.1% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +5.1% y/y vs +5.0% expected (prior 5.2%)
- Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.6 expected
- Change in private payrolls +381K vs +240K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +29K vs +15K expected
- Long-term unemployed at 1.3m vs 1.2m pre-pandemic)
- The employment-population ratio 59.9% vs 61.2% before pandemic
- Birth-death adjustment +64K
The US dollar has bumped higher on this data and stock futures have slipped. This increases the odds of a 75 bps hike at the end of the month and of the Fed continuing to hike beyond 3.5% early next year.
The Fed wants to see some moderation in the labor market in order to cool wage pressure but there are no signs of it here. That said, employment is a lagging indicator so it will take some time for rate hikes to worth their way through.
/inflation
