US March non-farm payrolls +236K vs +239K expected

• Prior was +311K (revised to +326K)
• Two-month net revision -17K
• Unemployment rate 3.5% vs 3.6% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 3.6%
• Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
• U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.6% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +4.2% y/y vs +4.3% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.5 expected
• Change in private payrolls +189K vs +215K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls -1K vs +5K expected
• Household survey +577K vs +177K prior
• Birth-death adjustment vs +176K jobs prior

The US dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term is higher on the kneejerk and has continued higher since. This report lands into a very thin FX market owing to US and European holidays. EUR/USD has sank to 1.0880 from 1.0915 while USD/JPY has risen to 132.36 from 131.73.

The household survey data is very strong with 577,000 jobs added and 480K people entering the workforce. The earnings numbers are flattening out and the Fed will take some comfort in that but there's been a building theme this week of a turn in the jobs market and you don't see it in this data. It will be tough for the Fed to avoid hiking in May now and the implied odds are up to 71% in the Fed fund futures market from about 55% before the release.