US CPI y/y
Headline CPI:
- Prior was +2.7% y/y
- m/m reading at +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- Month-over-month unrounded 0.3130% vs 0.2441% prior
Core measures:
- Core CPI 3.3% vs +3.3% expected
- Core CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- Core unrounded +0.308% vs +0.2800% m/m prior
- Real weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
- Core services ex shelter +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Core-CPI services ex-rent/OER +4.2% vs +4.4% prior
Fed pricing for a cut next week was at 85% ahead of the data.
The index for shelter rose 0.3% in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The Fed believes that's mostly lagged seasonality with real-time numbers lower than this headline. Rents were up 4.4% y/y and owners' equivalent rent was up 4.9%. The item that's stinging US consumers is auto insurance, which was up 12.7% y/y, though the pace of gains appears to be stalling with October CPI down 0.1% and the latest month up 0.1%.
The food index rose 0.4% m/m and that's an item to watch going forward.
USD/JPY has cooled to 152.30 from 152.60 since the release.
