- Prior control group was -0.1%
- Headline retail sales +0.7% versus +0.4% expected
- Prior m/m sales +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
- Retail sales $724.6 billion versus $718.9 billion prior
- Retail sales y/y +3.8% versus +2.85% prior (highest since Dec 2023)
- Ex autos +0.2% versus +0.4% expected
- Prior ex autos +0.1% prior (revised to +0.2%)
- Ex autos and gas +0.2% versus +0.1% prior
Ahead of this report, the market was pricing in a 94% chance of a Fed rate cut to 4.25-4.50% but less than two further cuts in 2025. The pricing is slightly more-dovish afterwards.
Within the details:
- Food Services & Drinking Places stores declined -0.4% month-over-month, which isn't a great sign for the consumer
- Auto sales were up 2.6% m/m and 6.5% y/y
- Nonstore retailers (e-commerce) +1.8% m/m and +9.8% y/y
I don't see signs of consumer acceleration here, though rate cuts are likely helping autos.
