A business day after the US jobs report which showed lower NFP jobs and lower revisions but the unemployment rate remaining steady, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index is coming out marginally higher after a revised lower number last month.
- Prior month 108.48 revised lower to 107.58
- Employment Trends Index for October 107.66
“The ETI was nearly unchanged in October, holding steady at roughly 2018-19 levels, where it has persisted throughout the summer months,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at the Conference Board. “The labor market continues to cool from its rapid post-pandemic pace, but the ETI suggests that this trend may be leveling out. This comes at a time when we expect business uncertainty to begin lifting, as the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts start taking hold and uncertainty around the US election subsides.
“Although October’s jobs report provided mixed results due to hurricane and strike impacts, several labor market indicators within the ETI improved,” added Barnes. “We expect some of October’s data blips to reverse in subsequent months, and generally see an economy growing at a healthy pace heading into 2025 as inflation and wage pressures continue to moderate.”
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) is a composite index that measures the underlying trends in U.S. employment. It’s designed to predict the direction of employment growth over the next several months and is considered a leading indicator for labor market conditions. The ETI combines eight individual labor-market indicators, each reflecting various aspects of employment conditions:
- Percentage of respondents who say they find “Jobs Hard to Get” (from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey).
- Initial claims for unemployment insurance (from the U.S. Department of Labor).
- Percentage of firms with positions they are not able to fill right now (from the National Federation of Independent Business).
- Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry (from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
- Ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers (from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
- Job openings (from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
- Industrial production (from the Federal Reserve).
- Real manufacturing and trade sales (from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
