UMich sentiment
- Sept final reading was 70.1
- Current conditions 62.7 vs 64.3 expected (63.3 prior)
- Expectations 72.9 vs 75.0 expected (74.4 prior)
- 1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.7% prior
- 5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.1% prior
I don't put much stock in this report as it's highly politicized and we're at the peak of the political cycle.
Here is the commentary in the survey:
Consumer sentiment inched down a meagre 1.2 index points in October, well within the margin of error, following two straight months of gains. Sentiment is currently 8% stronger than a year ago and almost 40% above the trough reached in June 2022. While inflation expectations have eased substantially since then, consumers continue to express frustration over high prices. Still, long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months, while current and expected personal finances both softened slightly. Despite widespread news coverage about the Middle East and Ukraine, few consumers connected these developments to the economy. Concerns over these conflicts climbed this month but were relatively rare, mentioned spontaneously by less than 5% of consumers. With the upcoming election on the horizon, some consumers appear to be withholding judgment about the longer term trajectory of the economy.
This chart speaks to those comments:
