- Prior month 1.7% revised to 1.9%. YoY. Core 2.4% revised to 2.6%
- PPI MoM 0.0% for September
- PPI ex food and energy 0.2% vs 0.2% est.
- PPI ex food and energy and Trade YoY 3.2% vs 3.3% last month
- PPI ex food and energy and trade MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% last month (revised from 0.3%)
The YOY data was higher than expectations despite the MoM data coming in lower or as expected.
Looking at the details from final demand services and goods:
Final Demand Services:
Increased 0.2% in September, following a 0.4% rise in August
Leading contributors:
Deposit services (+3.0%)
Machinery and vehicle wholesaling
Furniture retailing
Desktop and portable device application software publishing
Declines:
Professional and commercial equipment wholesaling (-6.3%)
Securities brokerage and dealing
Final Demand Goods:
Decreased 0.2% in September, following no change in August
Leading contributors to decline:
Gasoline (-5.6%)
Diesel fuel
Jet fuel
Chicken eggs
Home heating oil
Increases:
Processed poultry (+8.8%)
Electric power
Motor vehicles
Overall:
Final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.1%
Final demand trade services rose 0.2%
Final demand transportation and warehousing services rose 0.3%
The number crunchers will be looking at the impact from the CPI and the PPI on the PCE data. The MoM data is good but the YoY vs estimates are higher despite the declines.
BUT:....
- Core CPI inflation is now rising for the first time in 18 months
- Headline PPI inflation is now rising for the first time since June
- Last month's PPI inflation number was revised HIGHER
- Core PPI inflation is now up for 2 straight months
