- Final Q1 reading was +2.0% annualized
- Q4 was +2.6% annualized
Details:
- Consumer spending +1.6% vs +4.2% prior
- Consumer spending on durables % vs +16.3% prior
- GDP final sales +2.3% vs +1.4% expected
- GDP deflator +2.2% vs +3.0% expected
- Core PCE +3.8% vs +4.0% expected (4.9% prior)
- Exports -10.8%
- Imports-7.8%
- Business investment +4.9%
Percentage point changes
- Net trade -0.12 pp vs +0.58 pp in Q1
- Inventories +0.14 pp vs -2.14 pp in Q1
- Govt +0.06 pp vs +0.85 pp in Q1
The early prints are GDP are market movers but it's a bit of a fool's errand. The consensus on Q1 GDP when it was released was 2.0% and the market freaked when it came in at 1.1%. In the weeks ahead, it was revised to exactly 2.0%. Today's reading will be similarly revised as more data comes in.
On the details, the market was more optimistic about the Q1 numbers than the headlines indicate because there was such a large inventory draw. Some of that is normalization post-covid but there was also de-stocking ahead of an anticipated recession that could reverse in the quarters ahead.
Total nominal US GDP is now $26.84 trillion.
