Friday's non-farm payrolls report has some people rethinking the path of rates but this chart is a reminder that jobs data is undoubtedly slacking. The employment trends data is a composite of already-released data and it's now slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
“The ETI has been on an extended downtrend that mirrored the decline in job vacancies over the past two years, yet the overall employment picture has remained strong through much of that time,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “And while hiring has slowed in recent months from its former rapid pace, last week’s Employment Report showing outsized gains in September should alleviate some concerns—right at the time the Fed has started its rate-cutting cycle. Despite falling steadily from its peak, the ETI remains around 2018-19 levels.”
“With many companies fully restaffed to prior levels, jobseekers have begun experiencing challenges entering the market at this stage,” added Barnes.
