ISM manufacturing cyclical upturn
ISM manufacturing
  • Prior was 47.2
  • Prices paid 48.3 vs 54.0 prior
  • Employment 43.9 vs 46.0 prior
  • New orders 46.1 vs 44.6 prior
  • Production 49.8 vs 44.8 prior
  • Supplier deliveries 52.2 vs 50.5 prior
  • Inventories 43.9 vs 50.3 prior
  • Backlog of orders 44.1 vs 43.6 prior
  • New export orders 45.3 vs 48.6 prior
  • Imports 48.3 vs 49.6 prior

The ISM Manufacturing index remained in contraction territory in September, unchanged at 47.2. Manufacturing has now been contracting for six months.

While still indicating shrinking activity, there were some glimmers of hope in the details. New orders and production both improved, though still below the 50 expansion/contraction line. The employment component weakened further, suggesting continued job losses in the manufacturing sector.

Notably, the prices paid index fell sharply into contraction, indicating easing inflation pressures. This could give the Fed some breathing room on rates.

Comments from survey respondents highlighted ongoing economic uncertainty, with many awaiting the impacts of lower interest rates and the November election before committing to 2025 plans