- Business activity index 59.9 vs 53.3 prior
- Employment 48.1 vs 50.2 prior (lowest since June)
- New orders 59.4 vs 53.0 prior (highest since Feb 2023)
- Prices paid 59.4 vs 57.3 prior (highest since Jan)
- Supplier deliveries 52.1 vs 49.6 prior
- Inventories 58.1 vs 52.9 prior
- Backlog of orders 48.3 vs 43.7 prior
- New export orders 56.7 vs 50.9 prior
- Imports 52.7 vs 50.3 prior
- Inventory sentiment 54.0 vs 54.9 prior
- Full release
This is a very strong report and the best since Feb 2023. The caveat is on the jobs side, with the decline pointing to downside risks in tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report.
That said, the post-pandemic track record of this indicator is poor.
Comments in the report:
- "Overall, economic factors are somewhat stable in the last month. Volatility was limited, based more on seasonal aspects than geopolitical issues or election season. That stability may be short-lived due to looming port labor issues heading into October." [Accommodation & Food Services]
- "Business has been flat over the past three to six months, with concerns over growth in the near term." [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
- "Housing construction continues to struggle with high interest rates. While the recent half-point cut is encouraging, it may take another 150 basis points to move the needle in sales. Labor and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) regulations continue to be a drag on construction last month." [Construction]
- "Interest rates in both the housing and auto markets have been steadily declining, leading to a slight increase in auto and home loan applications." [Finance & Insurance]
- "Back orders from manufacturers have increased, resulting in supply constraints." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
- "New projects have not been consolidated in the U.S., which has led my organization to cut costs, especially by dismissing employees from departments with a lower activity volume." [Information]
- "There is concern over the economy, and it feels like a lot of people are waiting to see which way the election goes in November before making a solid plan for 2025 and beyond." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
- "Prices remaining mostly steady, with a significant increase in fiscal year-end spending." [Public Administration]
- "Starting to see positive year-over-year change in sales. Slow but steady." [Retail Trade]
- "Sales have slowed a bit, with customers possibly holding back on new projects and awaiting the outcome of the presidential election." [Wholesale Trade]
