US S&P Global manufacturing flash PMI 52.4 vs 56.0 expected

• Prior was 57.5
• Services 51.6 vs 53.5 expected
• Prior services 53.5
• Composite 51.2 vs 53.8 prior
• Services rate of input price inflation was the softest for five months and eased notably from May
• The rise in manufacturing input prices was the slowest since April 2021

This is a sizeable miss and evidence of a quick slowdown in demand, though it's still in positive territory (above 50). This report is consistent with a shifting narrative away from inflation worries and towards growth worries.

S&P Global: "business confidence slumped to one of the greatest extents seen since comparable data were available in 2012, down to the lowest since September 2020."

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter. The survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of less than 1% in June, with the goods-producing sector already in decline and the vast service sector slowing sharply.

“Having enjoyed a mini-boom from consumers returning after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders.

“There has consequently been a remarkable drop in demand for goods and services during June compared to prior months.

"Businesses have become much more concerned about the outlook as a result of the rising cost of living and drop in demand, as well as the increasingly aggressive interest rate path outlined by the Federal Reserve Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the Read this Term and the concomitant deterioration in broader financial conditions. Business confidence is now at a level which would typically herald an economic downturn, adding to the risk of recession.

“A corollary of the drop in demand was less pressure on prices, with the survey’s inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term gauges for firms’ costs and their selling prices falling sharply in June to suggest that, although still elevated, price pressures have peaked.”