The S&P/Case Shiller home price index for November 2021:
- Prior month +18.4% YoY. +0.9% MoM
- YoY index for 20 largest cities 18.3%
- MoM index (SA) 1.2%
- The National price index covering all nine U.S. Census divisions reported an 18.8% gain vs 19.0% in October
- 10 city composite index rose 16.8% down from 18.5% last month
- Phoenix (+32.2%), Tampa (29.0%) and Miami (26.6%) reported the highest YoY changes.
- 11 of 20 cities reported higher price increases.
“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI.
“The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s. Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).
“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended November 2021, and prices in 19 cities are at their all-time highs. November’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 16 of them. “Phoenix’s 32.2% increase led all cities for the 30th consecutive month. Tampa (+29.0%) and Miami (+26.6%) continued in second and third place in November, narrowly edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast (both +25.0%), but every region continued to log impressive gains.
“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years or reflects a more permanent secular change. In the short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”
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