- Talks are in the 'final stretch'
- Progress has been made in narrowing the list of differences
- Negotiators have returned to capitals for consultations to figure out whether leaders are prepared to make the tough political decisions needed
- Iran is shortening nuclear breakout time in ways that are 'extremely dangerous'
- Talks with Iran have been business-like and the US can see a path to a deal
- We don't think sequencing is going to be an insurmountable obstacle
It sounds more and more like a deal is coming together. The US needs lower oil prices more than it needs to keep Iran at bay. WTI was up another $1.48 to $88.30 today.
The question is: How much is priced into crude? I think the market is coming around to the idea of a deal but lately it hasn't impacted crude. OPEC also says it has contingencies in place to deal with more Iranian crude, though I'm not sure that's in plat at $90 brent.
Finally, it's an open question how much oil Iran has been able to export outside of sanctions. There are many invisible barrels out there.
