US yields are moving lower and trades at the lowest levels for the day.
- 2-year yield 4.021%, -3.2 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.751%, -4.5 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.905%, -3.7 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.192%, -3.2 basis points.
Flight to safety flows may are contributing to the declines today as chatter about Iran attacking Israel are louder. Also the New York Fed consumer survey of inflation showed the three-year expectations falling -0.6% to 2.3%, the lowest reading on record (going back to 2013). The 1 and 5-year expectations remained steady, however at 3% and 2.8% respectively
The declines in yields come ahead of key US inflation data and retail sales this week.
US PPI will be released on Tuesday at 8:30 AM:
- PPI MoM estimate 0.2% versus 0.2% last month
- Ex Food and Energry estimate 0.2% versus 0.4% last month
- PPI YoY estimate 2.3% versus 2.6%
- PPI Core estimate 2.7% versus 3.0%
US CPI is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM on Wednesday:
- CPI MoM estimate at 0.2% versus -0.1% last month
- Core CPI MoM estimate at 0.2% versus 0.1% last month
- Headline CPI YoY estimate at 3.0% versus 3.0% last month
- Core CPI YoY estimate at 3.2% versus 3.3% last month
US retail sales will be released on Thursday with expectations for
- Retail sales MoM 0.3% versus 0.0% last month.
- Ex Auto 0.1% versus 0.4% last month
- Control group 0.1% versus 0.9% last month
The Fed is focused on the inflation and employment. The inflation data is still above the 2% target targeted by the Fed. The retail sales help to give a view of the economy including the potential for employment.
