USD/CAD gives back all the gains despite oil's fall

USD/CAD drivers shift between the domestic economy, commodities and the general risk trade.

Today's broader market price action put commodities Commodities Commodities are assets that are either naturally grown or occurring in the environment. Most commonly this includes precious metals such as gold, silver, and palladium.Beyond metals, commodities can also focus on agricultural or industrial goods that are central to manufacturing or other sectors. This includes crude oil, copper, wheat, and others.Relative to other assets, commodities are an extremely complex form of investment, with many similarities and differences to existing products.Commodit Commodities are assets that are either naturally grown or occurring in the environment. Most commonly this includes precious metals such as gold, silver, and palladium.Beyond metals, commodities can also focus on agricultural or industrial goods that are central to manufacturing or other sectors. This includes crude oil, copper, wheat, and others.Relative to other assets, commodities are an extremely complex form of investment, with many similarities and differences to existing products.Commodit Read this Term and the general risk trade at odds. Oil fell hard on better news out of Ukraine while overall risk trades rallied on hopes for peace.

At first, the oil trade won out as USD/CAD jumped to 1.2775 from 1.2725 but the pair has slowly given it all back. For one, oil prices had a small rebound and stabilized but more importantly might be the bounce in overall risk trades. The S&P 500 is up 63 points and testing the earlier session high.

The failed high today is a fourth test of 1.28 that has failed and that could be telling but with all eyes on Ukraine, it will be interesting to see how the loonie performs if oil falls and risk trades continue to improve. My bet is that ends up being CAD-positive, though AUD or GBP GBP The Great British pound (GBP) or pound sterling is the official currency of the United Kingdom, Jersey, Guernsey, the Isle of Man, Gibraltar, South Georgia, and other pacific territories.The GBP is currently the fourth most-traded currency worldwide in forex markets after the US dollar, euro, and Japanese yen.As the oldest currency in continual use, the GBP holds great weight on the world market and is also the fourth largest reserve currency.The Bank of England (BoE) is the central banking auth The Great British pound (GBP) or pound sterling is the official currency of the United Kingdom, Jersey, Guernsey, the Isle of Man, Gibraltar, South Georgia, and other pacific territories.The GBP is currently the fourth most-traded currency worldwide in forex markets after the US dollar, euro, and Japanese yen.As the oldest currency in continual use, the GBP holds great weight on the world market and is also the fourth largest reserve currency.The Bank of England (BoE) is the central banking auth Read this Term is probably a better bet if that's your base case.