USD/CAD trading could be sapped today by holidays but the pair remains dangerously close to a major break. The 35 pip rise today brings the pair to 1.3941 and within striking distance of the 2022 high of 1.3977.
It's chopped around these levels since late October but has been reluctant to break through. The market is trying to weigh the impact of the US election, disappointing China stimulus and how quickly the Bank of Canada will cut rates. At the moment, pricing for the December 11 Bank of Canada meeting is 59% for 50 basis points a 41% for a quarter point.
The Canadian economic calendar is light this week but next Monday we get October CPI followed by retail sales on Thursday.
Oil is another factor weighing on the loonie, crude is down $1.66 to $68.68 today, which is the lowest since Oct 31.
Last week I spoke with BNNBloomberg about my longer-term outlook for the loonie.
