USD/CAD rises for the fifth day to the best level since March. What's next

USD/CAD is higher for the fifth straight day and the 7th day in the past 8.

It's been a one-way move after failing to break 1.3300 on April 13 and is now trading at 1.3628, including an 87-pip rise today.

I last wrote about this pair on April 13 and warned:

"I'm cautious on further declines in USD/CAD. There's good support nearby so the risk-reward doesn't argue for selling now."

The turn in the pair accelerated on soft Canadian retail sales in what could be a sign that higher Canadian mortgage rates are biting the consumer.

Today, the broad market is showing deep concern about slowing global growth. That's manifest itself in lower Treasury yields along with declines in oil and copper prices.

Canada is a levered trade to global growth so the sharp decline isn't a surprise in that context. At the same point, real evidence of a global recession -- particularly a harsh one -- is minimal. US data today was a touch softer but not plunging.

Technically, USD/CAD CAD The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally i The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally i Read this Term isn't yet overbought so it could run further but it's testing the 1.3650 zone, where there is some resistance. Beyond that, March highs near 1.3850 are in view. Those highs came on intense banking worries and I don't yet see a justification to get back there so I suspect the next opportunity will be to sell this pair.