Price is slightly higher today as bond yields are keeping a touch higher as well, with 10-year Treasury yields seen up 1.5 bps to 3.814%. It is still early in the day though, especially since we do have US retail sales data coming up later. That will be a key risk event to watch for markets in general.
Despite the slight nudge higher, the downside bias remains very much intact with sellers pinning price action below 140.00 for the most part and more importantly below the 100-day moving average (red line), seen at 140.85 currently. Buyers will have to push past that to gather any fresh momentum for a push higher.
Looking at the near-term chart:
Sellers remain in near-term control but there is a sense of consolidation in and around the 140.00 level. To me, that points to buyers still having some interest and appetite to step back in (after all, nothing has changed in terms of monetary policy divergence) but it will require the right catalyst for such a move to pan out.
The 100-hour moving average (red line), seen at 140.51 currently, will be a key resistance point to watch in case buyers do try to make a play and wrestle back some near-term control in the pair.
