The pair is back up by 0.6% today, trading to 132.20 currently as we see price action swing back the other way after a brief dip below 130.00 on the news last week. Essentially, all the gains in the yen from the Ueda report has been erased now:
At first, yen bulls were relieved that Amamiya had rejected the offer by the government to take over as the next BOJ governor. It was pretty much a case of "anyone else will do". But then after hearing some remarks by Ueda, it seems like traders aren't settled as he doesn't sound bold enough to push for change at the central bank.
However, I would want to say that we should not expect anything different from Ueda for now.
This is a guy coming in to a position that some would say is just a poster boy for the government in determining its policies. Japan hasn't been renowned to push the boundaries of challenging the convention, so of course Ueda will not step out of line and put out any overly hawkish remarks - not when he is not even confirmed yet and when Kuroda is still the man in the seat until 8 April.
It's all about playing your cards right when it comes to politicking and central bankers are pretty much politicians anyway these days.
The parliament hearings to confirm Ueda on 24 and 27 February are ones that markets will be watching closely but if anything else, I think we are just going to get the same old remarks from Ueda himself as you would with Kuroda.
He might offer up some slight added flexibility on policy but I reckon that will be about it. He should reiterate that the current BOJ monetary policy stance is "appropriate", with the need to achieve the 2% inflation target in a "stable, sustainable" manner. However, he might caution against existing policies but I reckon he will do so in a manner such as having to "weigh the benefits and costs" of said policies.
That is not to say though that he won't be the one to guide Japan out of this ultra easing policy. If the data continues to trend in the way it has in the past few months and if the spring wage negotiations turn out to be more bullish, those factors could really bolster the odds of Ueda heralding a big change at the central bank.
