The Wall Street Journal reports its latest national survey, finding that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. The journal caveats with:
- within the polls’ margins of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead
I haven't seen many polls, apart from the 'betting markets' that show a much larger Trump lead. Not sure these are reliable so I'm sticking with regular old polling.
From the Journal article on this national pol vs. swing state polling conducted earlier in October:
- the Journal’s poll earlier this month of the seven battleground states likely to determine the Electoral College winner found them all essentially tied, with Trump building a meaningful advantage only in Nevada, which like the others was within the poll’s margin of error. “All signs point to a race that’s very much up in the air, and the last two weeks will determine who votes and who wins in a close race,”
'Earlier this month' is probably not too helpful, it's a fluid contest and very tight. I think the winner will be which one of the two can motivate their voters to get out the door to the polling place on the day.
The WSJ is gated, but here is the link if you can access it.
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The Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters from Oct. 19 to 22. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
