Weekly Market Outlook (19-23 June)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

Monday: US Juneteenth Holiday.

Tuesday: PBOC LPR.

Wednesday: UK CPI, Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony.

Thursday: SNB Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims Jobless Claims Jobless claims are a weekly statistic reported in the United States that represents a key barometer for domestic employment. As one of the most closely watched US indicators, jobless claims carry a lot of weight in financial markets, namely forex and the stock market.Jobless claims are reported on a weekly basis by the Department of Labor. While painting a picture of the overall health of the economy, jobless claims can be broken down into two types.This includes initial jobless claims or person Jobless claims are a weekly statistic reported in the United States that represents a key barometer for domestic employment. As one of the most closely watched US indicators, jobless claims carry a lot of weight in financial markets, namely forex and the stock market.Jobless claims are reported on a weekly basis by the Department of Labor. While painting a picture of the overall health of the economy, jobless claims can be broken down into two types.This includes initial jobless claims or person Read this Term.

Friday: US S&P Global PMIs.

Tuesday: The PBOC is expected to cut the 1-year and 5-year LMP rates by 10 bps following the cuts in the 7-day reverse repo, the Standing Lending Facility and 1-year MLF rates. These actions were taken due to the very weak performance of the Chinese economy that prompted officials to seek more support for growth.

Wednesday: The UK CPI Y/Y is expected to print at 8.5% vs. 8.7% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 6.7% vs. 6.8% prior. This report comes just a day before the BoE rate decision but given that it’s already widely expected that the BoE will hike by 25 bps, it’s unlikely to see this report changing the expectations for this meeting unless we see very big surprises.

Fed Chair Powell will testify to Congress on the state of US monetary policy. Given that it comes just a week after his FOMC Press Conference and that we haven’t got any top tier economic data in the meantime, it’s unlikely that we will hear anything different.

Thursday: The SNB is expected to hike by 25 bps bringing their interest rate to 1.75%. The step down from 50 bps is justified by the softer CPI data where the Headline CPI Y/Y came at 2.2% and the Core CPI Y/Y printed at 1.9%. The SNB is very close to its 0-2% target band but given the recent Governor’s Jordan hawkish comments after the CPI data about inflation being more persistent than thought and that both second and third round effects are being seen, the market expects a 25 bps increase at this meeting that may even be the last one.

The BoE is widely expected to hike by 25 bps bringing the bank rate to 4.75%. The recent inflation and employment data have been really hot, with wage growth being too high for a return to their 2% target. Dhingra and Tenreyro are expected to vote for no change, so if any of them votes for a hike, it would be taken as a hawkish surprise. The market expects the BoE to take the terminal rate to 5.25% at the moment.

The US Jobless Claims have been on the rise lately missing expectations by a notable margin on two straight weeks. Continuing Claims though, which are an indicator of how hard it is for people to find jobs after being unemployed, remained basically steady. There may be some softening in the labour market but not yet enough to call for a recession. Anyway, initial claims are expected at 256K vs. 262K prior, while continuing claims are seen at 1766K vs. 1775K prior.

Friday: The S&P Global US PMIs might be the most important data point for this week. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 48.3 vs. 48.4 prior, while the Services PMI is seen at 54.0 vs. 54.9 prior.

Wish you a profitable week!