UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: PBoC LPR.
- Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI, FOMC Minutes.
- Wednesday: US Durable Goods, US Jobless Claims.
- Thursday: US Thanksgiving Day, Australia/Eurozone/UK PMIs, ECB Meeting Minutes, New Zealand Retail Sales.
- Friday: Japan CPI, Canada Retail Sales, US PMIs, US Black Friday (early markets close).
Monday
The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates unchanged at 3.45% for the 1 year and 4.20% for the 5 years given that the central bank refrained from any adjustment to the MLF rate, which is generally a precursor for the LPR change. Recent economic data has been mixed with PMIs returning in contraction and the inflation rate falling back into deflation, while activity data surprised to the upside.
Tuesday
The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected to fall to 3.2% vs. 3.8% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.1% vs. -0.1% prior. The BoC is mainly focused on the underlying inflation measures (Common, Median and Trimmed Mean) which missed expectations across the board the last time. Given the softening in the labour market, a small beat is unlikely to change anything for the BoC.
Wednesday
The US Jobless Claims missed expectations across the board once again last week with Continuing Claims clearly showing a strong upward trend. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 225K vs. 235K prior, while there’s no expectation for Continuing Claims at the time of writing.
Thursday
Thursday is going to be a low liquidity day with the US being on holiday for Thanksgiving Day. Nonetheless, we’ll get the release of the PMIs for Eurozone and UK, which will likely set the tone for the day:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs. 43.1 prior.
- Eurozone Services PMI 48.1 vs. 47.8 prior.
- UK Manufacturing PMI 45.0 vs. 44.8 prior.
- UK Services PMI 49.5 vs. 49.5 prior.
Friday
The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected to increase to 3.0% vs. 2.8% prior while there’s no consensus for the other measures at the time of writing. This inflation report is not going to change anything for the BoJ unless we get some huge surprises. The BoJ’s attention is on wage growth with the June 2024 spring wage talks in focus.
The day after Thanksgiving is another holiday for the US with the markets closing early, but we will also get the latest PMIs which are likely to be market moving. The US Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall into contraction at 49.8 vs. 50.0 while the Services PMI is seen at 50.3 vs. 50.6 prior.
