UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Tuesday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, China PMIs, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US ECI, US Consumer Confidence.
- Wednesday: New Zealand Jobs data, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ADP, Treasury Refunding Announcement, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, FOMC Policy Decision.
- Thursday: Switzerland CPI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, US Challenger Job Cuts, US Jobless Claims.
- Friday: Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US NFP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI.
Tuesday
The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick lower to 50.3 vs. 50.8 prior, while the Services PMI is expected at 52.2 vs. 53.0 prior. The Chinese PMIs have been very volatile in the past few years making it hard to gauge the state of the economy. Nonetheless, they picked up well recently improving the risk sentiment around the Chinese economy. As long as they are not too bad, we can expect the market to be positive about it, especially with the promised policy support from the officials.
The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.4% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.6% vs. 2.9% prior. The ECB has already telegraphed a rate cut in June and it will likely take two hot reports and a disappointing Q1 2024 wage growth data to force them to abort the mission. The market expects three rate cuts this year, and while it’s unlikely that this week’s report can change much the probability for the June move, it can change the market’s pricing for the rest of the year.
The US Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected at 1.0% vs. 0.9% prior. This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years, but it remains relatively elevated. Hot data is likely to trigger a hawkish response from the market considering the recent shift in the Fed’s stance.
This is because even if it might not cause a second inflationary wave, elevated wage growth with a tight labour market can keep inflation higher for longer risking a de-anchoring of expectations and make it hard to return to target sustainably. Conversely, soft data can lead to some positive risk sentiment with less fears about inflation and more focus on growth.
The US Consumer Confidence is expected to tick lower in April to 104.0 vs. 104.7 in March. The Chief Economists at The Conference Board highlighted that over the last six months, confidence has been moving sideways with no real trend to the upside or downside either by income or age group. Moreover, they added that consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels but in general complaints have been trending downward. Recession fears have also been trending downward and the assessments of the present situation improved in March, primarily driven by more positive views of the current employment situation. The Present Situation Index will be something to watch as that’s generally a leading indicator for the unemployment rate.
Wednesday
The New Zealand Q1 Labour Market report is expected to show a 0.3% change in employment vs. 0.4% prior with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.3% vs. 4.0% prior. The Labour Costs Q/Q is expected at 0.8% vs. 1.0% prior, while the Y/Y measure is seen ticking lower to 3.8% vs. 3.9% prior. The RBNZ continues to expect the first rate cut in 2025, while the market sees the first move in August 2024. This might be just the central bank’s strategy to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions, especially after seeing what happened with the Fed’s pivot. A sustained deterioration in the labour market though might not only make the market to confirm the rate cut in 2024 but also increase the number of cuts.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick lower to 50.1 vs. 50.3 prior. Last month, the index jumped into expansion for the first time after 16 consecutive months in contraction with generally upbeat commentary. The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI returned back into contraction after the Q1 2024 expansion. The commentary this time has been pretty bleak with even mentions of strong layoff activity, although there was also good news on the inflation front. The ISM report is generally considered more important by the market, so it will be used to confirm or deny the S&P Global result.
The US Job Openings is expected at 8.680M vs. 8.756M prior. This will be the first major US labour market report of the week and, although it’s old (March data), it’s generally a market moving release. The last report we got a slight beat with negative revisions to the prior readings highlighting a resilient although normalising labour market. The market will also focus on the hiring and quit rates as they both fell below the pre-pandemic trend lately.
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% with no major changes to the statement except possibly an acknowledgement of the recent setback in the disinflationary impulse. The focus will be mostly on Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference and possible updates on the QT taper. Overall, it’s hard to expect something new given the recent hawkish Fedspeak with Fed’s Williams even opening the door for a rate hike in case the progress on inflation were to stall or worse, reverse. The market is now fully pricing just one rate cut in 2024, which is incredible given that it was pricing SEVEN! at the start of the year.
Thursday
The Switzerland CPI M/M is expected at 0.1% vs. 0.0% prior, while there’s no consensus for the Y/Y measure at the time of writing although the prior report missed forecasts once again falling to 1.0% vs. 1.3% expected. The market has already priced in a rate cut in June and for the rest of the year, so another marked fall could at the margin increase the magnitude of the cuts from 25 bps to 50 bps.
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because disinflation to the Fed's target is more likely with a weakening labour market. A resilient labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around the 1800K level. This week Initial Claims are expected at 212K vs. 207K prior, while there is no consensus at the time of writing for Continuing Claims although the prior release showed a decrease to 1781K vs. 1814K expected and 1796K prior.
Friday
The US NFP report is expected to show 243K jobs added in April vs. 303K in March with the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 3.8%. The Average Hourly Earnings M/M is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior, while there’s no consensus for the Y/Y figure at the time of writing although the previous release showed an easing to 4.1% vs. 4.3% prior. The general expectations into the report will be shaped but other jobs data throughout the week. We got some mixed signals recently with strong Jobless Claims but weakening data in the NFIB Hiring Intentions and the S&P Global PMIs. The focus will also be on wage growth as a good report with falling wage growth might trigger some positive risk sentiment, while an uptick will likely result in a hawkish reaction.
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 52.0 vs. 51.4 prior. Last month, the index missed expectations with some general weakness in the sub-indexes, especially the prices component which fell to the lowest level since March 2020. The latest S&P Global US Services PMI missed expectations. The commentary has been downbeat with even mentions of strong layoff activity, although there was also good news on the inflation front. The most important data to watch will be the price and employment sub-indexes.
