In terms of the S&P500 technical analysis, the struggle to break the trendline that defined the bear market in 2022 is clear. Once the market approached the trendline, it started to range with tentative price action until the big miss in US Retail Sales smacked the market down back to the previous resistance now turned support in the 3900 price area.
What gave the market confidence back was another beat in US Jobless Claims highlighting the resilience and strength of the labour market. In fact, the market bounced from the 3900 area and started to rally the next day with even the Fed speakers confirming a 25 bps hike at the February meeting.
Looks like this market is holding on just on the labour market strength and at first signs of weakness there it may all crumble.
S&P500 Technical Analysis
Daily chart of the S&P500.
On the daily chart above, we can see that the price reached the blue trendline and then fell back to the resistance now turned support in the 3900 price area as the US Retail Sales missed expectations.
We can also see how the price bounced back as US Jobless Claims beat expectations yet again and the price is now again at the trendline. Will the bulls manage to break the trendline this time and sustain a rally to the next resistance at 4175?
Looking at the 1-hour chart, we can see the recent catalysts that pushed the market to the upside and then back down with the miss in US Retail Sales. The strength in labour market data is helping the bulls for now.
A break above the Retail Sales high will give the bulls more confidence to keep charging and reaching new highs.
15-minutes chart of the S&P500
Zooming in to the 15 minutes chart, we can see that there are different probable scenarios:
· The price breaks to the upside and starts a rally target the Retail Sales high or above.
· The price first pulls back to the minor trendline and then starts to rally again following the first scenario.
· The price breaks to the downside the minor trendline and falls back to the support in the 3900 price area.