Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 111 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 61 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 44 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 59 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 20 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 81 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 51 bps (73% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.