Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 103 bps (87% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 64 bps (100% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today's meeting)
  • BoE: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 57 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 18 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 79 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 56 bps (73% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 8 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.