Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 125 bps

  • ECB: 29 bps (86% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 136 bps

  • BoE: 40 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 121 bps

  • BoC: 27 bps (92% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 103 bps

  • RBA: 8 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 57 bps

  • RBNZ: 57 bps (70% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/30% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 160 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 6 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 34 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut