Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 42 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 119 bps

  • ECB: 23 bps (91% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 121 bps

  • BoE: 30 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 94 bps

  • BoC: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 114 bps

  • RBA: 5 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 52 bps

  • RBNZ: 54 bps (84% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/16% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 152 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 36 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut