Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 45 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 118 bps

  • ECB: 22 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 120 bps

  • BoE: 31 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 93 bps

  • BoC: 35 bps (57% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 110 bps

  • RBA: 6 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 52 bps

  • RBNZ: 54 bps (84% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/16% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 147 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (73% probability of 10 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 36 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut