Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 43 bps (100% probability of rate cut at today's decision)

2025: 106 bps

  • ECB: 27 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 133 bps

  • BoE: 31 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today's decision)

2025: 87 bps

  • BoC: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 102 bps

  • RBA: 3 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 46 bps

  • RBNZ: 51 bps (95% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/5% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 143 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 10 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 40 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut