Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 20 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 82 bps

  • ECB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 138 bps

  • BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 64 bps

  • BoC: 39 bps (58% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 100 bps

  • RBA: 3 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 46 bps

  • RBNZ: 53 bps (85% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/15% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 143 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 10 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 41 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut