Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

  • ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 145 bps

  • BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 56 bps

  • BoC: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 95 bps

  • RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 40 bps

  • RBNZ: 55 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/20% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 170 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 13 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut