Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 15 bps (61% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 78 bps

  • ECB: 31 bps (77% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 162 bps

  • BoE: 4 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 77 bps

  • BoC: 36 bps (53% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 104 bps

  • RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 56 bps

  • RBNZ: 33 bps (66% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 86 bps

  • SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 15 bps (58% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 51 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut