Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 18 bps (71% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 85 bps

  • ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 154 bps

  • BoE: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 78 bps

  • BoC: 36 bps (57% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 106 bps

  • RBA: 3 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 66 bps

  • RBNZ: 36 bps (56% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 98 bps

  • SNB: 41 bps (65% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 96 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 9 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 48 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut