Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 125 bps (96% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 75 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 53 bps (57% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 80 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 46 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 63 bps (64% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 48 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 3 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

(This is an extraordinary update as things are moving very quickly and expectations are liable to big swings in both directions depending on the next developments)