Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 105 bps (*61% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 66 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 44 bps (70% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 78 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 30 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 76 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 50 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*The remaining 39% probability for the Fed is for a 50 bps cut. That will be decided in the first week of September.