Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 111 bps (57% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 63 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 43 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 58 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 24 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 82 bps (60% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 53 bps (61% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.