It is finally here. A 25 bps rate hike is definitely on the table and I'd be surprised if the Fed is to press forward with a 50 bps rate hike today. They backtracked on that in the weeks leading up to today so their only real hawkish play is to set one up for perhaps May or June.
The other signal to watch is when the Fed will want to engage in quantitative tightening ("QT").
Besides that, we'll see how the economic projections change and if Powell will deliver any hawkish undertones in his press conference. If anything else, I would argue that the market is looking for some hawkish references.
But at the end of the day, whether it is a 25 bps rate hike or 50 bps rate hike, it doesn't matter. This isn't going to solve the inflation conundrum.
