Via Westpac on the Australian dollar after the US CPI data on Thursday:
- As previously noted, the bias for AUD/USD to rise has been partly due to AU domestic and RBA’s tilt to a more hawkish hold, as well as potential that US is returning to a path of disinflation. June CPI puts this prospect firmly in play.
- After Fed Chair Powell had made it clear that the Fed needed to gain more confidence from further data releases, the CPI fall of -0.1%m/m and back to 3.0%y/y (core 3.3%y/y) was perfectly on cue. Sharp moves lower in US yields fell as much as -17bps (short-dated) with 10yr yields -13bps underscore the shift in market pricing and perceptions.
- AUD/USD continues to drive towards an interim target of 0.6820 within potential moves to retest 0.6870 (Dec. 2023 high) or even 0.6925. Critical will be that any pullbacks are contained (0.6705-15 remaining a pivot zone).
