In his words, the Fed will remain data dependent heading into September and they will be looking towards two more CPI reports as well as two more non-farm payrolls reports as a general guidance. So, when will we be getting to those key economic releases and is there anything more to be mindful of just in case?
- 4 August - US July non-farm payrolls, labour market report
- 10 August - US July CPI report
- 1 September - US August non-farm payrolls, labour market report
- 13 September - US August CPI report
The FOMC meeting decision will come on 20 September. So, just be wary that by the time we get the inflation numbers for August, it will be during the Fed blackout period. That means we won't be getting any more communication from policymakers, although they should have already laid out expectations beforehand.
Besides the above, what this signals to markets is that dollar sentiment is going to be very much driven by economic data from hereon. That doesn't just mean what we may see above, but every small bit of relevant data will also count.
Today, we will have the US advanced Q2 GDP data alongside the weekly initial jobless claims. That will be the first key hurdle for the dollar but just be mindful that data points like retail sales, PCE price data, PPI, and even the ADP employment change (despite its inaccuracies) will be vital in shaping up the story for the dollar in the months ahead.
