Looking at the calendar, it seems like it's going to be a boring day today. There are no market-moving releases, so we might just see some consolidation going into the weekend.
- Eurozone April CPI (Final) 09:00 GMT
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.4% prior, while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 2.7% vs. 2.9% prior. As it's generally the case, the "final" readings are rarely market-moving because the markets respond to new information. Only big revisions might trigger reactions because they could change the future expectations.
- Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) 14:00 GMT (10:00 ET)
The Leading Economic Index is a composite indicator made up of ten components that is designed to anticipate changes in the business cycle. It has a fairly good track record of predicting peaks and troughs in the economy three to nine months in advance. This time though it's been signalling a recession for a long time but we haven't seen one yet.
The current business cycle is indeed a unique one. Anyway, this report is not market-moving because the components that make up the index like jobless claims and ISM new orders are released in advance, so the markets have already incorporated the information into the price.
- Fed's Waller (neutral - voter) 14:15 GMT (10:15 ET)
Christopher Waller is a key FOMC member because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in Fed’s policy. He was the first one talking about QT in December 2021 and the first one mentioning rate cuts in November 2023. Right now though, the Fed is in a "wait and see" mode and it's unlikely that they will deviate from the current stance before seeing more data. Moreover, the topic for today's speech is "Payments Innovation, Technical Standards and the Federal Reserve's Roles" so we might not get any comments on monetary policy.
