Today there's no notable event in the European session and all the action will take place in the American session as we get to see the Canadian CPI data and the US Consumer Confidence report.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Canada May CPI
The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior.
The last report showed the underlying inflation measures falling back inside the BoC’s 1-3% target band which gave the central bank the green light to deliver the first rate cut. The market sees a 65% chance of another rate cut in July (55.6 bps by the end of the year) but that will depend on the CPI data today.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US June Consumer Confidence
The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 100 vs. 102 prior. The last report showed confidence improving after three consecutive months of decline. The Chief Economists at The Conference Board highlighted that “the strong labour market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation”.
Moreover, “looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income”. The overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years. The Present Situation Index will be something to watch given the recent misses in the US Jobless Claims as that’s generally a leading indicator for the unemployment rate.
Central bank speakers:
- 11:00 GMT/07:00 ET - Fed's Bowman (hawk - voter)
- 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Cook (neutral - voter)
