The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just the German IFO as the main highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn't be market moving.
The important data will be released in the American session as we get the US Advance Q2 GDP, the US Jobless Claims and the US Durable Goods Orders. Generally, the GDP is not that big of a market mover as it's 3-month old data. We get the Q2 release when the market is already focusing on Q4 or Q1 2025. The latest estimate from Atlanta Fed GDPNow was 2.6%.
The Durable Goods Orders is a very volatile data series and for this reason it's even less market moving than the GDP. Therefore, the most important data to watch today will be the US Jobless Claims as the Fed is now very focused on the labour market.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain pretty much stable around cycle lows and inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022. Continuing Claims, on the other hand, have been on a sustained rise lately with the data printing new cycle highs every week.
This shows that layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels while hiring is more subdued. This is something to keep an eye on. This week Initial Claims are expected at 238K vs. 243K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1860K vs. 1867K prior.
Central bank speakers:
- 15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)
