Although we have a more lively day in terms of data releases, most of them are low-tier indicators that are rarely market moving. In the European session, we will get the Spanish and the German CPI figures. Both of them are unlikely to be market moving because they won't change anything for the ECB or the market's pricing.
In the American session, we get the second reading of the US Q2 GDP and the US Jobless Claims. The GDP data is very old news and therefore insignificant for the market. The US Jobless Claims, on the other hand, are the timeliest indicator we have on the labour market, which is what the Fed is most focused on right now.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims have been on a sustained rise showing that layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels while hiring is more subdued.
This week Initial Claims are expected at 233K vs. 232K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1870K vs. 1863K prior.
Central bank speakers:
- 07:15 GMT - ECB's Schnabel (slightly hawkish - voter)
- 09:15 GMT - ECB's Lane (dove - voter)
- 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - SNB's Jordan
- 19:30 GMT - 15:30 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawk - voter)
