In the European session the main event will be the release of the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The market has already fully priced in a back-to-back cut in October, so it's unlikely that the data will change those expectations unless we get big deviations from the expected numbers.
We will also get the final PMI readings for France, Germany, Eurozone and the UK, and the preliminary PMIs for Spain, Switzerland and Italy. All these data points are unlikely to be market-moving though.
In the American session, the attention will switch to the most important release of the day, that is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. We will also get the Canadian PMIs and the US Job Openings data.
09:00 GMT - Eurozone Flash September CPI
The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.9% vs. 2.2% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.8% vs. 2.8% prior. The market has already priced in a back-to-back 25 bps cut in October following the weak PMIs, and the soft French and Spain CPI numbers last week. The expectations are for the ECB to cut by 25 bps at each meeting until June 2025.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US September ISM Manufacturing PMI
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 47.5 vs. 47.2 prior. This and the NFP report are going to be the most important economic releases this week. The S&P Global PMIs last week showed the Manufacturing index falling further into contraction.
It’s unlikely that those PMIs and maybe even the ISM PMIs incorporated the latest Fed’s decision. The ISM data though is collected the last week of the month, so there might be some improvement compared to the S&P Global report.
Given the focus on global growth following the Fed and especially the PBoC decisions, the market might be ok with a benign figure and cheer a rebound.
The New Orders index should be the one to watch as it should be the first to respond to the recent developments. The focus will also be on the Employment index ahead of the NFP report on Friday.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US August JOLTS Job Openings
The US Job Openings is expected at 7.670M vs. 7.673M prior. The last report surprised to the downside with a big drop. Despite that, the hiring rate improved slightly while the layoffs rate remained low. It’s a labour market where at the moment it’s hard to find a job but also low risk of losing one. We will see in the next months how it evolves following the recent developments.
Central bank speakers:
- 07:00 GMT - ECB's de Guindos (dove - voter)
- 15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - Fed's Bostic (neutral - voter)
- 15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - Fed's Cook (dove - voter)
- 15:30 GMT/11:30 ET - ECB's Schnabel (hawk - voter)
