It's the US Presidential Election Day so I wouldn't expect the market to care about anything else. Although this week we have some key economic releases and central bank decisions, it's really all about the US election. This week is basically divided in three phases: the pre-election noise, the election and the post-election trading.
15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US October ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 53.8 vs. 54.9 prior. This survey hasn't been giving any clear signal in the past couple of years as it’s just been ranging since 2022.
Nonetheless, the services sector showed resilience in these years, and it looks like it’s been picking up steam in the recent quarters.
The S&P Global Services PMI noted that “demand has strengthened, as signalled by new order inflows hitting the highest for nearly one-and-a-half years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited to the services economy.”
And added “businesses nevertheless remain cautious about hiring, leading to a third month of modest payroll reductions. Firms are worried in particular about uncertainty caused by the Presidential Election.”
Therefore, everything hinges on the US Presidential Election.
21:30 GMT/16:30 ET - New Zealand Q3 Labour Market report
The New Zealand Labour Market report is expected to show a contraction of -0.5% in Q3 vs. 0.4% in Q2 and the Unemployment Rate to jump to 5.0% vs. 4.6% prior. The Labour Cost Index Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.6% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.7% vs. 0.9% prior.
As a reminder, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last meeting and the market expects another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting (22% chance of a 75 bps cut). In 2025, the market sees four more 25 bps cuts.
Central bank speakers:
- 14:30 GMT/09:30 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)
- 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - ECB's Schnabel (neutral - voter)
