In the European session, we will get the final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The final readings aren't generally market moving events. In the American session, we have the US ADP, the ISM Services PMI and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Those will likely move the market although Powell speech might be the most important event of the day.

13:15 GMT/08:15 ET - US November ADP

The US ADP is expected at 150K vs. 233K prior. The last report surprised to the upside triggering a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Although the ADP has a poor track record in predicting the NFP, the recent market’s sensitivity to labour market data makes it a market moving event. I don’t see the market repricing the rate cuts expectations further based on labour market data though. The main event this month will be the US CPI on the 11th of December.

US ADP
US ADP

15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US November ISM Services PMI

The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 55.6 vs. 56.0 prior. This survey hasn't been giving any clear signal in the past couple of years as it’s just been ranging since 2022. The last report though jumped to a new cycle high, which highlights the pick up in economic activity with the Fed's easing and now a more business-friendly incoming administration, with expectations of looser regulations, tax cuts and so on.

US ISM Services PMI
US ISM Services PMI

Central bank speakers:

  • 09:00 GMT - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter)
  • 09:00 GMT - ECB's Cipollone (dove - voter)
  • 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)
  • 13:45 GMT/08:45 ET - Fed's Musalem (neutral - non voter)
  • 15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)
  • 18:45 GMT/13:45 ET - Fed's Powell (neutral - voter)